PETALING JAYA: Political analysts say opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim may have lacked a sufficient number of MPs to shoot down the federal budget at the vote on the second reading of the supply bill on Thursday.
He may have opted not to call for a bloc vote as he did not have the number of MPs needed, said James Chin of the University of Tasmania鈥檚 Asia Institute.
The PKR president would have suffered embarrassment if he had called for the vote but failed to stop the second reading of the bill from being approved, especially given his abortive attempt to take over Putrajaya in September, Chin said.
鈥淚t鈥檚 quite clear that his recent move to pull down the government amid the Covid-19 crisis and Sabah elections has turned out to be a straw man. He just doesn鈥檛 have the numbers. Or if he did have the numbers, the numbers have abandoned him,鈥 Chin said.
鈥淗e would not have wanted a vote when it would clearly show that he doesn鈥檛 have the numbers. This way, he can actually claim he still has the numbers to block at the committee stage.
鈥淢any people are very frustrated with Anwar and the opposition, but they have to be realistic. There was no way the opposition could have put up a united front against this budget,鈥 he told FMT.
He said the opposition might have missed its biggest chance as the vote on Thursday was the more important one, adding that Muhyiddin鈥檚 position was 鈥渜uite safe鈥 for now.
He foresees changes being made to the budget at the committee stage to accommodate the demands of MPs in exchange for their support.
鈥淪o even if they want to block it, it鈥檚 highly unlikely that they will be able to because individual MPs鈥 concerns will be taken care of by the government.鈥
He said the opposition鈥檚 only choice would be for all to come together at the next parliamentary session as a united front, something he believes cannot be achieved, while the next big opportunity would be at the next general election.
Umno MPs hold the key
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said the opposition鈥檚 chances of toppling Muhyiddin were dimmed after the Umno leadership and backbenchers decided to back the budget.
He said the support of Umno MPs, even if just a handful of them, would be a key factor.
鈥淏ecause Umno backbenchers did not back him (Anwar) up at the last moment, that鈥檚 why he felt that he couldn鈥檛 win yesterday (on Thursday), therefore deciding not to effectuate the bloc vote,鈥 he told FMT.
However, he said another consideration in Anwar鈥檚 mind might be the fact that Muhyiddin could still choose not to resign even if the budget did fail on Thursday, as the prime minister could argue that it was not the final vote yet.
鈥淎lthough it will be the honourable thing for Muhyiddin to do and it鈥檚 a constitutional convention in the Westminster system we subscribe to, there鈥檚 nothing in the written constitution which says he has to resign if he fails this vote.
鈥淎ssuming the budget was outvoted but Muhyiddin refuses to step down and makes all sorts of constitutional arguments, it would be very messy.
鈥淢aybe Anwar would like to wait until the third reading and final vote to really try his luck at toppling the government. But of course, not many people understand this, they鈥檙e all questioning him and the opposition鈥檚 credibility,鈥 he said.
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